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Markets / EUR/USD
Market hub · EURUSD

EUR/USD: Analysis, Forecasts & Data

The most-traded pair in the world, and a read on the Eurozone-versus-US growth and rate story.

Reviewed by Alex Jhonas·Updated Sep 17, 2026·How we test →
Live dashboard snapshot
Live price
1.14770
Bid 1.15599 / Ask 1.15619
Daily change
+0.13%
Updated 8:48 PM
Trend & confluence
Bearish
Confluence 3%
AI bias & volatility
SELL
Volatility: Moderate
Live chart
Historical statistics
52-week range
1.10655 to 1.20817
YTD change
+3.1%
Average daily range
65 pips
Live data & analysis
Key levels
Pivot
1.14937
Resistance 1
1.15268
Support 1
1.14312
Key levels as of 2026-09-16
LevelPrice
Resistance 31.16224
Resistance 21.15893
Resistance 11.15268
Pivot1.14937
Support 11.14312
Support 21.13981
Support 31.13356
Trailing 20-session range1.14606 to 1.17112
Seasonality
Strongest month
August
+1.50%
Weakest month
July
-1.08%
Months on file
4
of 12
Monthly seasonality
MonthYears on fileAvg returnWin rate
May2+0.42%50%
June2+0.95%50%
July2-1.08%50%
August2+1.50%100%
COT positioning
EUR spec. net
-42,616
Net short
USD spec. net
+17,604
Net long
CFTC speculative positioning
CurrencyWeekSpeculative netPosition
EUR2026-09-08-42,616Net short
EUR2026-09-01-24,925Net short
EUR2026-08-25-36,352Net short
EUR2026-08-18-59,088Net short
EUR2026-08-11-60,010Net short
EUR2026-08-04-58,091Net short
EUR2026-07-28-72,447Net short
EUR2026-07-21-41,338Net short
USD2026-09-0817,604Net long
USD2026-09-0117,025Net long
USD2026-08-2518,682Net long
USD2026-08-1819,079Net long
USD2026-08-1121,409Net long
USD2026-08-0422,499Net long
USD2026-07-2817,197Net long
USD2026-07-2115,614Net long
Full COT tracker →
Event reactions
Most reactive event
Retail Sales MoM (+4 more)
USD · 2 occurrences
Avg 15m move
-1.0 pips
How EUR/USD has reacted to major data releases
EventCurrencyOccurrencesAvg 15m pipAvg 30m pipBullish share
Retail Sales MoM (+4 more)USD2-1.0-0.650%
ISM Manufacturing PMIUSD3-0.6-2.567%
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Overview

EUR/USD, the euro priced in US dollars, is the single most-traded currency pair in the world, regularly accounting for close to a quarter of all global foreign exchange turnover. It pairs the currency of the 20-nation eurozone against the dollar, so it moves on the relative strength of two of the largest economic blocs on earth rather than on any one country's data alone.

Because so much capital flows through it, EUR/USD tends to have tighter spreads and deeper liquidity than almost any other pair, which is part of why it is the default reference rate quoted across trading platforms, news wires, and central bank commentary. Its direction is driven mainly by the gap between what the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve are expected to do with interest rates, though broader risk sentiment, energy prices, and relative growth momentum between the eurozone and the US all play a role as well.

History

EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, pairing the euro against the US dollar. The euro itself launched on January 1, 1999, initially as an electronic accounting currency used by 11 European Union members. Physical euro notes and coins followed on January 1, 2002, when those countries retired their old currencies for good.

In its first trading sessions the euro opened above $1.17, then spent its early years falling. By October 2000 it had dropped to roughly $0.82, its weakest level on record at the time, before recovering through the rest of the decade.

The pair later climbed to its all-time high near $1.60 in April 2008, during a period of broad dollar weakness tied to the global financial crisis. It has traded well below that peak ever since. In 2022, a rapid series of US Federal Reserve rate hikes widened the yield gap between US and eurozone bonds and pushed EUR/USD down to parity for the first time since 2002, with the pair briefly dipping under $0.96 that September.

Today EUR/USD still sets the pace for the wider forex market and is one of the most closely watched pairs for reading both ECB and Fed policy signals.

Technical analysis

As of the last completed session (2026-09-15), EUR/USD's pivot sits at 1.15403, with resistance at 1.15540 and 1.15653, and support at 1.15290 and 1.15153.

Over the trailing 20 trading days (2026-08-19 to 2026-09-15), price has not closed a session above 1.17112 or below 1.15227, the range worth watching for a genuine breakout rather than an intraday spike.

FirstBuckFX's live confluence model currently reads sell on EUR/USD at 3% confidence, with the underlying trend classified as bearish. 1 of the model's tracked conditions are currently bullish against 1 bearish.

The component scores behind that read: RSI 3.0, MACD 0.0, EMA structure 0.0, support/resistance 14.0.

Fundamental analysis

Speculators are currently net short 42,616 EUR futures contracts per the latest CFTC data (week of 2026-09-08), down from -24,925 the week of 2026-09-01. Speculators are currently net long 17,604 USD futures contracts per the latest CFTC data (week of 2026-09-08), up from 17,025 the week of 2026-09-01.

Positioning like this describes what large speculators are already doing; it is not a prediction. A heavily one-sided position can persist for a long stretch before it unwinds, or it can reverse quickly if the underlying fundamental story shifts.

On FirstBuckFX's currency strength meter, EUR currently ranks 5 of 8 tracked currencies (score -0.0), while USD ranks 8 of 8 (score -0.3). EUR is the relatively stronger of the two right now.

Market drivers

The highest-impact scheduled events for this pair split fairly evenly between the two economies. On the US side, Federal Reserve rate decisions and press conferences, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report, and US CPI inflation data typically move the pair the most. On the eurozone side, ECB Governing Council meetings and President Lagarde's press conference, the flash HICP inflation estimate, and the composite PMI surveys for the eurozone and Germany (the bloc's largest economy) carry similar weight.

Beyond the scheduled calendar, sentiment surveys like the German ZEW and IFO indices are watched closely as early reads on eurozone momentum, and unscheduled moves in energy prices or broader risk appetite (equity sell-offs, safe-haven dollar demand) can override the calendar entirely on any given day.

Economic calendar
USD · CPILow
USD · Inflation Rate YoYHigh
USD · Core Inflation Rate YoYHigh
USD · Inflation Rate MoMHigh
USD · Core Inflation Rate MoMHigh
USD · CPI s.aLow
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Frequently asked
What time does EUR/USD trade most actively?

Liquidity peaks during the London-New York overlap, roughly 13:00-17:00 UTC, when both major sessions are open.