As of the last completed session (2026-09-15), USD/JPY's pivot sits at 154.833, with resistance at 155.467 and 155.866, and support at 154.434 and 153.800.
Over the trailing 20 trading days (2026-08-19 to 2026-09-15), price has not closed a session above 160.383 or below 152.874, the range worth watching for a genuine breakout rather than an intraday spike.
FirstBuckFX's live confluence model currently reads neutral on USD/JPY at 18% confidence, with the underlying trend classified as neutral. 2 of the model's tracked conditions are currently bullish against 1 bearish.
The component scores behind that read: RSI 3.0, MACD 15.0, EMA structure 0.0, support/resistance 13.0.
Speculators are currently net long 17,604 USD futures contracts per the latest CFTC data (week of 2026-09-08), up from 17,025 the week of 2026-09-01. Speculators are currently net long 10,796 JPY futures contracts per the latest CFTC data (week of 2026-09-08), up from -92,227 the week of 2026-09-01.
Positioning like this describes what large speculators are already doing; it is not a prediction. A heavily one-sided position can persist for a long stretch before it unwinds, or it can reverse quickly if the underlying fundamental story shifts.
On FirstBuckFX's currency strength meter, USD currently ranks 8 of 8 tracked currencies (score -0.3), while JPY ranks 3 of 8 (score 0.1). JPY is the relatively stronger of the two right now.